Expectations and Trust in Automated Vehicles
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Summary
This study investigates the role of expectations and perceived performance in shaping trust in Automated Vehicles (AVs), addressing a critical barrier to AV adoption. Grounded in Expectation-Confirmation Theory, the research examines how the alignment between initial expectations and actual performance influences trust, and whether perceived risk moderates this relationship. The authors hypothesize that trust is highest when perceived performance exceeds expectations (positive disconfirmation) and that internal factors (driving behavior) and external factors (weather) moderate the impact of expectation confirmation on trust. To test these hypotheses, the researchers conducted an online survey with 443 U.S. drivers, selected to represent the national driver population in terms of demographics and driving habits. The study employed a 2x2 factorial design manipulating two independent variables: weather conditions (sunny vs. snowy) and AV driving behaviors (normal vs. aggressive). Participants viewed videos depicting these scenarios and rated their initial expectations, perceived performance, and trust in the AVs using validated Likert-scale instruments. Polynomial regression and response surface methodology were used to analyze the complex interactions between expectation, performance, and trust. The results supported both hypotheses. First, trust in AVs was highest when perceived performance exceeded initial expectations, confirming that positive disconfirmation yields greater trust than mere confirmation. The analysis revealed that the first principal axis of the response surface shifted significantly away from the congruence line, indicating that exceeding expectations is more beneficial for trust than meeting them. Second, both weather conditions and AV driving behaviors significantly moderated the relationship between expectation confirmation and trust. Specifically, adverse weather and aggressive driving behaviors increased perceived risk, which altered how expectation confirmation influenced trust levels. The findings have significant theoretical and practical implications for AV research and design. Theoretically, the study demonstrates that trust cannot be understood by examining expectations in isolation; it must be analyzed in relation to perceived performance and contextual risk factors. Practically, the results suggest that AV systems should aim to exceed user expectations to maximize trust, while also accounting for how environmental and behavioral risks moderate this effect. By highlighting the moderating role of risk, the study provides a framework for designing AV interfaces and behaviors that maintain trust even in high-risk scenarios, such as poor weather or aggressive driving conditions.
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The full processing record for this entry. Every stage of this paper's journey through the pipeline is logged — what ran, with which tool and model, how many attempts it took, and when it last completed. Discovered via openalex_abstract on 2026-05-08 (12 acquisition events logged).
| Stage | Outcome | Tool | Model | Prompt | Attempts | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| discover | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-05-05 |
| archive | success | openalex | — | — | 35 | 2026-06-16 |
| extract | success | cached | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-16 |
| clean | success | clean | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-04 |
| chunk | success | chunk | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-04 |
| embed | success | embed | Qwen/Qwen3-Embedding-8B | — | 1 | 2026-06-04 |
| enrich | success | openalex | — | — | 2 | 2026-05-08 |
| promote | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-05-05 |
| summarize | success | llm | qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant | summ-v5 | 1 | 2026-06-16 |
| tag | success | vector_similarity | — | — | 15 | 2026-06-11 |
| verify | partial | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-17 |
Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-16; verification: verified_with_issues.
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